Prof. Michael McGinnis Fall Semester 1988

This course covers everything you always needed to know about nuclear weapons but were too sensible to ask, at least until now. By signing up for this course you have entered into the bizarre world of nuclear deterrence. Debates over nuclear policy tend to be shrouded in mystery, with baffling technical terms and acronyms thrown around seemingly at random. This course is intended to help students cut through this mystery to the heart of the underlying logic of superpower relations, and to convince students that these policy debates can indeed be understood by the ordinary citizen. Nuclear weapons have played a major role in international politics since 1945 and they are likely to do so throughout the remainder of your lifetime, and a broader recognition of these issues is absolutely crucial to our future survival.

This Y200 topics course is as close as we come to offering courses in current events, but even here a great emphasis will be placed on theoretical perspectives and analytical skills. (Political science is not high school civics.) Students are expected to follow any relevant developments in the news media, although arms control is unlikely to be a major issue in this election campaign, with negotiations essentially on hold until the new administration takes office. Relevant current events will be discussed, but the bulk of class time will be devoted to careful study of the underlying logic of nuclear deterrence, as well as its role in the broader context of foreign and domestic politics. We will focus on the past record of arms control negotiations, especially between the superpowers, but this task requires us to first understand the basics of nuclear technology, world politics, and decision making processes. Our analysis will involve the application of such analytical techniques as decision analysis and game theory, as these tools are a major components of nuclear debates. Students are not expected to have any background in these areas, and there are no prerequisites for this course.

As a complex of interrelated political issues, arms control is inherently controversial. The purpose of this course is not to inculcate any particular political position. Instead, the various positions will be laid out and compared, and these debates placed in historical perspective and subjected to objective analysis. Even students who begin with no background in defense politics or nuclear technology should emerge from this course with an ability to understand and participate in a meaningful way in these ongoing debates.

Grading Procedures and Student Responsibilities

Students are expected to come to class every day, and to do all the assigned readings. Not all of the material covered in lectures and class discussion will be included in the readings, and not all of the readings will be discussed in class. You will, however, be held responsible for both types of material for exams, and so if you want to do well in this course you will simply have to do both. Furthermore, there may be several video presentations or guest speakers during class time, and I cannot guarantee that access to these special materials will be available at your convenience outside of class time. Finally, it may be necessary to re-schedule a few class meetings to accommodate special presentations, and students are responsible for any changes announced in class. The best way to avoid any confusions (and to generally get more out of this course) is simple: come to class every day!

To do well in this class it is also necessary to prepare for the exams. A study guide including sample essay questions will be distributed approximately one week before the midterm and final exams. Both exams will include both objective (multiple-choice, matching, fill-in-the-blank, etc.) and subjective (essay) questions. There will also be two quizzes with only objective type questions. The schedule for quizzes and tests is given below. (Yes, the final exam will be cumulative.)

• Quiz 1 Thursday, Sept. 22 15%
• Midterm Exam Thursday, Oct. 20 30%
• Quiz 2 Thursday, Nov. 17 15%
• Final Exam Tuesday, Dec. 13, 5-7 PM 40%

A numerical grade will be assigned to each exam and quiz and an average computed according to the weights given above. Official letter grades will be assigned only at the end of the term, from a curve based on the distribution of numerical scores. A student's class participation and improvement over the course of the term may be taken into consideration when drawing these final distinctions.

One word of warning: the instructor has a reputation for asking difficult essay questions on exams, essays that require students to integrate the readings and class discussions into an analysis of some important aspects of arms control. Essays simply repeating lecture or chapter outlines invariably receive a low grade. The exams and quizzes will be graded primarily by the assistant instructor, and students with questions about grades should discuss the matter with the Associate Instructor (AI) before bringing the matter to the instructor. We hope to set up study sessions before each exam, if the class wants them.

Course Readings

Reading assignments will be taken from the following three paperbacks, available for purchase at area bookstores.

• Barash, David, The Arms Race and Nuclear War
• Smoke, Richard, National Security and the Nuclear Dilemma, 2nd ed.
• Carnesale, Albert and R. Haass, eds. Superpower Arms Control

Copies of each book should be available on open reserve in the Undergraduate section of the Main Library, and on closed reserve in the Political Science Research Collection in Woodburn 200. Some additional readings may be placed on reserve during the term. It will be announced in class whether students will be held responsible for these materials.

Also on reserve are the following edited volumes. I highly recommend that sometime during the term you take the time to examine these opposing viewpoints on nuclear issues. (These readings are optional.)

• C. Kegley and E. Wittkopf, The Nuclear Reader: Strategy, Weapons, War
• J. Harris and E. Markusen, Nuclear Weapons and the Threat of Nuclear War
• William Evan and S. Hilgartner, The Arms Race and Nuclear War
• Herbert Levine and David Carlton, The Nuclear Arms Race Debated
• Burns Weston, Toward Nuclear Disarmament and Global Security

The following books are also on reserve and may be worth a look.

• Eric Semler, The Language of Nuclear War
• Soviet Ministry of Defense, Whence the Threat to Peace?
• U.S. Dept. of Defense, Soviet Military Power (on reserve in Government Publications section of the library)

Warnings and Ground Rules

All exams and quizzes will be closed book and no notes. Anyone caught cheating will receive a zero for that exam and a failing course grade. Additional disciplinary action will also be available.

Don't do it.

Students do not have an automatic right for make-up exams or incompletes. Only if a student can document a valid reason, and does so with as much lead time as possible, will these special privileges be granted. Even then, students taking make up exams should expect different and generally more difficult exams than the remainder of the class.

SCHEDULE OF LECTURE TOPICS AND READING ASSIGNMENTS

Aug. 30 Introduction to the Course

Sept. 1 Video Presentation: Day After Trinity

Sept. 6 Overview of the Current Situation

• Barash, chapter 2

Sept. 8, 13, 15 Technological Background

• Barash, chapters 1, 3, 4, 5

Sept. 20 A Brief Introduction to Strategic Doctrine

• Barash, chapter 6

Sept. 22 FIRST QUIZ

Sept. 27, 29, Oct. 4 The Politics of Nuclear Deterrence

• Barash, chapter 7 (pp. 135-148 only)
• Smoke, chapters 1-11

Oct. 6, 11 Decision Analysis and Nuclear War Scenarios

• Barash, chapters 8, 9
• Smoke, Appendix

Oct. 13, 18 The Role of Nuclear Weapons in Modern Society

• Barash, chapter 12-14

Oct. 20 MIDTERM EXAM

Oct. 25, 27, Nov. 1 The Politics of Arms Control

• Barash, chapters 10, 11
• Carnesale-Haass, chaps. 1-8 (skim 3,8)

Nov. 3, 8 Evaluating the Record of Arms Control

• Carnesale-Haass, chapters 9-12

Nov. 10, 15 Recent Developments: INF, START

• Smoke, chapters 12-14, Epilogue

Nov. 17 SECOND QUIZ

Nov. 22 optional class meeting (Tuesday of Thanksgiving week)

Nov. 29, Dec. 1, 6 SDI and the Future

• Barash, pp. 148-165

Dec. 8 Long Term Scenarios of Hope

• Barash, chapter 15

Tuesday, Dec. 13, 5:00-7:00 FINAL EXAM

Link to Exams and Study Guides